Aging of the Global Population as an Integral Problem of the Future
Research Article
Acknowledgments
The research was carried out within the framework of the HSE University Fundamental Research Program in 2023 with the support of the Russian Science Foundation (Project No. 23-18-00535).
How to Cite
Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L., Korotayev A.V. Aging of the Global Population as an Integral Problem of the Future. Sotsiologicheskiy Zhurnal = Sociological Journal. 2023. Vol. 29. No. 2. P. 110-131. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19181/socjour.2023.29.2.6 (in Russ.).
Abstract
This article analyzes the process of global population aging, which has a significant impact on all areas of public life in the 21st century. The influence of the population aging process on various areas of social activity will be determined by its scale and depth, i.e. by the potential demographic structure of the future society. At the same time, the ability of modern society to cope with elevated risks associated with this process is a problematic matter. The risks and problems associated with population aging include economic recessions, pension crises, the issue of caring for the increasingly more numerous disabled and frail people, maintaining the financial savings of the elderly, the issue of ageism, and the vulnerability of the elderly during periods of crisis and pandemics, and consequently maintaining life expectancy as well as stable democracy and even world order. These risks and problems are of particular concern given that by the mid-21st century two thirds of people over the age of 65 will be living in medium and low income countries. Moreover, aging will affect even today’s poorest countries that are located in Sub-Saharan Africa with their populations that are still young as of today. In view of this, the problem of social security and healthcare for the elderly is becoming increasingly acute and requires implementing proactive measures. The problem of population aging does not get enough attention from such international organizations as the UN and WHO; in general, studies on this issue both in the public realm and in scientific discourse are limited. However, even now global aging is an extremely important problem, and we assume that it will become the most crucial problem in the future. Thus, not paying sufficient attention to it might lead to negative consequences such as societal tensions, crises and intergenerational conflicts, as well as political and social instability. In this article we approach the process from the perspective of transitioning from perceiving it as a problem to considering it as something that provides new opportunities associated with the more mature and older generation possessing worldly wisdom and experience. Today specific measures must be taken in different areas, and special long-term programs must be adopted to promote a higher health-related quality of life (HRQoL) for the older generation, as well as to combat the widespread stereotype of feeling doomed at an old age, the idea being that your life is over. Grinin et al. point out the importance of technologies, the development of which can be stimulated specifically by the process of global aging and the need to increase life expectancy. As a background for the forthcoming technological wave (which we refer to as the Cybernetic Revolution), global aging may create an acute demand for labor-conservation technologies, as well as provide a powerful stimulus for the field of medicine. Progress in the latter realm would help prolong working age and improve health-related (biological) quality of life.
Keywords:
global aging, socio-demographic structure of society, social development, biological quality of life, cybernetic revolution, pension crisis, ageism, long-term forecasting, cybernetic society
References
1. Grinin L. Negative rates and other latest financial technologies. Obshchestvo i ekonomika. 2021. No. 2. P. 18–30. DOI: 10.31857/S020736760013634-6 (In Russ.)
2. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L. Cybernetic revolution and the sixth technological order. Istoricheskaya psikhologiya i sotsiologiya istorii. 2015. No. 8 (1). P. 172–197. (In Russ.)
3. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L. Ot rubil do nanorobotov. Mir na puti k epokhe samoupravlyaemykh sistem (istoriya tekhnologii i opisanie ikh budushchego). [From hacks to nanorobots. The world is on the way to the era of self-governing systems (history of technology and description of their future).] Moscow: Uchitel’ publ., 2015. 424 p. (In Russ.)
4. Kapelyushnikov R.I. Phenomenon stareniya naseleniya: economic effect. [Population aging phenomenon: economic effects.] Moscow: Institut ekonomiki RAN publ., 2019. 50 p. (In Russ.)
5. Kapelyushnikov R.I. The phenomenon of population aging: economic effects. Ekonomicheskaya politika. 2019. No. 14 (2). P. 8–63. DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-20192-8-63 (In Russ.)
6. Korotayev A.V., Butovskaya M.L., Shul’gin S.G., Zin’kina Yu.V. Influence of global aging on the global system of values. Vek globalizatsii. 2021. No. 4. P. 69–80. DOI: 10.30884/vglob/2021.04.05 (In Russ.)
7. Malkov S.Yu., Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L. A difficult path to a cybernetic society: socio-political transformations. Informatsionnye voiny. 2022. No. 3 (63). P. 50–58. (In Russ.)
8. Popova S.M., Yanik A.A. Problems of Global Population Aging: Analysis of UN Documents and Strategy. Mezhdunarodnoe pravo i mezhdunarodnye organizatsii. 2014. No. 3. P. 429–443. (In Russ.)
9. Khalturina D.A., Korotayev A.V. Alcohol and drugs as a factor in the demographic crisis. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya. 2006. No. 7. P. 104–112. (In Russ.)
10. Shcherbakova E.M. The aging of the world population according to UN estimates 2019. Demoskop Weekly. 2019. No. 837–838. Accessed 03.06.2023. URL: http://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/2019/0837/barometer837.pdf (In Russ.)
11. Alkema L., Raftery A.E., Gerland P., Clark S.J., Pelletier F., Buettner T., Heilig G.K. Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries. Demography. 2011. No. 48 (3). P. 815–839. DOI: 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5
12. Barsukov V.N. From the Demographic Dividend to Population Aging: World Trends in the System-Wide Transition. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast. 2019. No. 12 (4). P. 167–182. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2019.4.64.11
13. Bloom D.E., Luca D.L. The Global Demography of Aging: Facts, Explanation, Future. Discussion Paper No. 10163. Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor, 2016. 66 p. Accessed 02.06.2023. URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp10163.pdf
14. Bös D., Von Weizsäcker R.K. Economic Consequences of an Aging Population. European Economic Review. 1989. No. 33 (2–3). P. 345–354. DOI: 10.1016/0014-2921(89)90112-8
15. Fichtner J.J. Global aging and public finance. Business Economics. 2018. No. 53 (2). P. 72–78. DOI: 10.1057/s11369-018-0066-4
16. Fukuyama F. Our Post-Human Future: Consequences of the Bio-Technology Revolution. N. Y.: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2002. 356 p.
17. Galor O., Weil D.N. Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond. American Economic Review. 2000. No. 90 (4). P. 806–828. DOI: 10.1257/aer.90.4.806
18. Goldstone J.A. Population Aging and Global Economic Growth // History & Mathematics: Demography & Aging / Ed. by J.A. Goldstone, L. Grinin, A. Korotayev. Volgograd: Uchitel, 2015. P. 147–155.
19. Goldstone J.A., Grinin L., Korotayev A. Research into Global Aging and Its Consequences. History & Mathematics: Demography & Aging. Ed. by J.A. Goldstone, L. Grinin, A. Korotayev. Volgograd: Uchitel, 2015. P. 5–9.
20. Grey A.В. de, Rae M. Ending Aging: The Rejuvenation Breakthroughs that Could Reverse Human Aging in Our Lifetime. N. Y.: St. Martin’s Press, 2008. 389 p.
21. Grinin L., Grinin A., Korotayev A. A Quantitative Analysis of Worldwide Long-Term Technology Growth: From 40,000 BCE to the Early 22nd Century. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2020. Vol. 155. Article 119955. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119955
22. Grinin L., Grinin A., Korotayev A. COVID-19 Pandemic as a Trigger for the Acceleration of the Cybernetic Revolution, Transition from E-Government to E-State, and Change in Social Relations. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2021. Vol. 175. P. 1–17. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121348
23. Harper S. Addressing the Implications of Global Aging. Journal of Population Research. 2006. No. 23 (2). P. 205–223. DOI: 10.1007/BF03031816
24. Hsu Y.H., Lo H.C. The Impacts of Population Aging on Saving, Capital Formation, and Economic Growth. American Journal of Industrial and Business Management. 2019. No. 9 (12). P. 2231–2246. DOI: 10.4236/ajibm.2019.912148
25. Jackson R. The Shape of Things to Come. The Macro Challenges of Population Aging. Concord Coalition & the Global Aging Institute. 2021. 14 p. [online]. Accessed 02.06.2023. URL: https://www.globalaginginstitute.org/assets/client-assets/common/downloads/publications/2021-The-Macro-Challenges-of-Population-Aging.pdf
26. Jackson R., Howe N., Strauss R., Nakashima K. The Greying of the Great Powers. Demography and Geopolitics in the 21st Century. Washington: Center for Strategic & International Studies, 2008. Accessed 02.06.2023. URL: https://www.csis.org/analysis/graying-great-powers
27. Jackson R., Macaranas R., Peter T. U.S. Development Policy in an Aging World. New Challenges and New Priorities for a New Demographic Era. A Research Report from Project on U.S. Leadership. Washington: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2013. Accessed 02.06.2023. URL: https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-development-policy-aging-world
28. Kamiya Y., Hertog S. Measuring household and living arrangements of older persons around the world. The United Nations Database on the Households and Living Arrangements of Older Persons 2019. United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2020. Accessed 02.06.2023. URL: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/desa-pd-technicalpaper-living_arrangements_of_older_persons_2019.pdf
29. Khaltourina D., Korotayev A. Effects of Specific Alcohol Control Policy Measures on Alcohol-Related Mortality in Russia from 1998 to 2013. Alcohol and Alcoholism. 2015. No. 50 (5). P. 588–601. DOI: 10.1093/alcalc/agv042
30. Lee R., Mason A. Population Aging and the Generational Economy: A Global Perspective. Northampton MA: Edward Elgar, 2011. 616 p. DOI: 10.4337/9780857930583
31. Lutz W., Goujon A., Kc S., Stonawski M., Stilianakis N. Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries. Luxembour: Publications Office of the European Union, 2018. 598 p. DOI: 10.2760/41776
32. Maestas N., Mullen K.J., Powell D. The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity. NBER Working Paper No. 22452. Cambridge: NBER, 2016. 54 p. DOI: 10.7249/WR1063-1
33. Medici A.C. Health sector challenges and policies in the context of aging populations. United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2021. Accessed 02.06.2023. URL: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/files/documents/2021/Nov/technical_paper_healthy_life_expectancy_29nov.2021_0.pdf
34. Orlická E. Impact of population aging and elderly poverty on macroeconomic aggregates. Procedia Economics and Finance. 2015. No. 30. P. 598–605. DOI: 10.1016/S2212-5671(15)01272-1
35. Peterson P.G. Gray Down: The Global Aging Crisis. Foreign Affairs. 1999. No. 78 (1). P. 42–55. DOI: 10.2307/20020238
36. Powell J.L., Khan H.T. Aging and Globalization: A Global Analysis. Journal of Globalization Studies. 2013. No. 4 (1). P. 137–146.
37. Raftery A.E., Li N., Ševčíková H., Gerland P., Heilig G.K. Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2012. No. 109 (35). P. 13915–13921. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1211452109
38. Help Wanted? Providing and Paying for Long-Term Care. Paris. 2011. OECD Health Policy Studies. Accessed: 20.05.2023. URL: https://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/help-wanted-9789264097759-en.htm
39. Prettner K. Population aging and endogenous economic growth. Journal of Population Economics. 2013. No. 26 (2) P. 811–834. DOI: 10.1007/s00148-012-0441-9
40. Vollset S.E., Goren E, Yuan C.-W., Cao J., Smith A.E., Hsiao T., et al. Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. The Lancet. July 14, 2020. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30677-2
41. Zimmer Z., McDaniel S.A. (eds). Global Aging in the Twenty-First Century: Challenges, Opportunities and Implications. L.; N. Y.: Routledge, 2013. 344 p.
2. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L. Cybernetic revolution and the sixth technological order. Istoricheskaya psikhologiya i sotsiologiya istorii. 2015. No. 8 (1). P. 172–197. (In Russ.)
3. Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L. Ot rubil do nanorobotov. Mir na puti k epokhe samoupravlyaemykh sistem (istoriya tekhnologii i opisanie ikh budushchego). [From hacks to nanorobots. The world is on the way to the era of self-governing systems (history of technology and description of their future).] Moscow: Uchitel’ publ., 2015. 424 p. (In Russ.)
4. Kapelyushnikov R.I. Phenomenon stareniya naseleniya: economic effect. [Population aging phenomenon: economic effects.] Moscow: Institut ekonomiki RAN publ., 2019. 50 p. (In Russ.)
5. Kapelyushnikov R.I. The phenomenon of population aging: economic effects. Ekonomicheskaya politika. 2019. No. 14 (2). P. 8–63. DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-20192-8-63 (In Russ.)
6. Korotayev A.V., Butovskaya M.L., Shul’gin S.G., Zin’kina Yu.V. Influence of global aging on the global system of values. Vek globalizatsii. 2021. No. 4. P. 69–80. DOI: 10.30884/vglob/2021.04.05 (In Russ.)
7. Malkov S.Yu., Grinin L.E., Grinin A.L. A difficult path to a cybernetic society: socio-political transformations. Informatsionnye voiny. 2022. No. 3 (63). P. 50–58. (In Russ.)
8. Popova S.M., Yanik A.A. Problems of Global Population Aging: Analysis of UN Documents and Strategy. Mezhdunarodnoe pravo i mezhdunarodnye organizatsii. 2014. No. 3. P. 429–443. (In Russ.)
9. Khalturina D.A., Korotayev A.V. Alcohol and drugs as a factor in the demographic crisis. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya. 2006. No. 7. P. 104–112. (In Russ.)
10. Shcherbakova E.M. The aging of the world population according to UN estimates 2019. Demoskop Weekly. 2019. No. 837–838. Accessed 03.06.2023. URL: http://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/2019/0837/barometer837.pdf (In Russ.)
11. Alkema L., Raftery A.E., Gerland P., Clark S.J., Pelletier F., Buettner T., Heilig G.K. Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries. Demography. 2011. No. 48 (3). P. 815–839. DOI: 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5
12. Barsukov V.N. From the Demographic Dividend to Population Aging: World Trends in the System-Wide Transition. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast. 2019. No. 12 (4). P. 167–182. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2019.4.64.11
13. Bloom D.E., Luca D.L. The Global Demography of Aging: Facts, Explanation, Future. Discussion Paper No. 10163. Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor, 2016. 66 p. Accessed 02.06.2023. URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp10163.pdf
14. Bös D., Von Weizsäcker R.K. Economic Consequences of an Aging Population. European Economic Review. 1989. No. 33 (2–3). P. 345–354. DOI: 10.1016/0014-2921(89)90112-8
15. Fichtner J.J. Global aging and public finance. Business Economics. 2018. No. 53 (2). P. 72–78. DOI: 10.1057/s11369-018-0066-4
16. Fukuyama F. Our Post-Human Future: Consequences of the Bio-Technology Revolution. N. Y.: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2002. 356 p.
17. Galor O., Weil D.N. Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond. American Economic Review. 2000. No. 90 (4). P. 806–828. DOI: 10.1257/aer.90.4.806
18. Goldstone J.A. Population Aging and Global Economic Growth // History & Mathematics: Demography & Aging / Ed. by J.A. Goldstone, L. Grinin, A. Korotayev. Volgograd: Uchitel, 2015. P. 147–155.
19. Goldstone J.A., Grinin L., Korotayev A. Research into Global Aging and Its Consequences. History & Mathematics: Demography & Aging. Ed. by J.A. Goldstone, L. Grinin, A. Korotayev. Volgograd: Uchitel, 2015. P. 5–9.
20. Grey A.В. de, Rae M. Ending Aging: The Rejuvenation Breakthroughs that Could Reverse Human Aging in Our Lifetime. N. Y.: St. Martin’s Press, 2008. 389 p.
21. Grinin L., Grinin A., Korotayev A. A Quantitative Analysis of Worldwide Long-Term Technology Growth: From 40,000 BCE to the Early 22nd Century. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2020. Vol. 155. Article 119955. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119955
22. Grinin L., Grinin A., Korotayev A. COVID-19 Pandemic as a Trigger for the Acceleration of the Cybernetic Revolution, Transition from E-Government to E-State, and Change in Social Relations. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2021. Vol. 175. P. 1–17. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121348
23. Harper S. Addressing the Implications of Global Aging. Journal of Population Research. 2006. No. 23 (2). P. 205–223. DOI: 10.1007/BF03031816
24. Hsu Y.H., Lo H.C. The Impacts of Population Aging on Saving, Capital Formation, and Economic Growth. American Journal of Industrial and Business Management. 2019. No. 9 (12). P. 2231–2246. DOI: 10.4236/ajibm.2019.912148
25. Jackson R. The Shape of Things to Come. The Macro Challenges of Population Aging. Concord Coalition & the Global Aging Institute. 2021. 14 p. [online]. Accessed 02.06.2023. URL: https://www.globalaginginstitute.org/assets/client-assets/common/downloads/publications/2021-The-Macro-Challenges-of-Population-Aging.pdf
26. Jackson R., Howe N., Strauss R., Nakashima K. The Greying of the Great Powers. Demography and Geopolitics in the 21st Century. Washington: Center for Strategic & International Studies, 2008. Accessed 02.06.2023. URL: https://www.csis.org/analysis/graying-great-powers
27. Jackson R., Macaranas R., Peter T. U.S. Development Policy in an Aging World. New Challenges and New Priorities for a New Demographic Era. A Research Report from Project on U.S. Leadership. Washington: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2013. Accessed 02.06.2023. URL: https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-development-policy-aging-world
28. Kamiya Y., Hertog S. Measuring household and living arrangements of older persons around the world. The United Nations Database on the Households and Living Arrangements of Older Persons 2019. United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2020. Accessed 02.06.2023. URL: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/desa-pd-technicalpaper-living_arrangements_of_older_persons_2019.pdf
29. Khaltourina D., Korotayev A. Effects of Specific Alcohol Control Policy Measures on Alcohol-Related Mortality in Russia from 1998 to 2013. Alcohol and Alcoholism. 2015. No. 50 (5). P. 588–601. DOI: 10.1093/alcalc/agv042
30. Lee R., Mason A. Population Aging and the Generational Economy: A Global Perspective. Northampton MA: Edward Elgar, 2011. 616 p. DOI: 10.4337/9780857930583
31. Lutz W., Goujon A., Kc S., Stonawski M., Stilianakis N. Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries. Luxembour: Publications Office of the European Union, 2018. 598 p. DOI: 10.2760/41776
32. Maestas N., Mullen K.J., Powell D. The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity. NBER Working Paper No. 22452. Cambridge: NBER, 2016. 54 p. DOI: 10.7249/WR1063-1
33. Medici A.C. Health sector challenges and policies in the context of aging populations. United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2021. Accessed 02.06.2023. URL: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/files/documents/2021/Nov/technical_paper_healthy_life_expectancy_29nov.2021_0.pdf
34. Orlická E. Impact of population aging and elderly poverty on macroeconomic aggregates. Procedia Economics and Finance. 2015. No. 30. P. 598–605. DOI: 10.1016/S2212-5671(15)01272-1
35. Peterson P.G. Gray Down: The Global Aging Crisis. Foreign Affairs. 1999. No. 78 (1). P. 42–55. DOI: 10.2307/20020238
36. Powell J.L., Khan H.T. Aging and Globalization: A Global Analysis. Journal of Globalization Studies. 2013. No. 4 (1). P. 137–146.
37. Raftery A.E., Li N., Ševčíková H., Gerland P., Heilig G.K. Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2012. No. 109 (35). P. 13915–13921. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1211452109
38. Help Wanted? Providing and Paying for Long-Term Care. Paris. 2011. OECD Health Policy Studies. Accessed: 20.05.2023. URL: https://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/help-wanted-9789264097759-en.htm
39. Prettner K. Population aging and endogenous economic growth. Journal of Population Economics. 2013. No. 26 (2) P. 811–834. DOI: 10.1007/s00148-012-0441-9
40. Vollset S.E., Goren E, Yuan C.-W., Cao J., Smith A.E., Hsiao T., et al. Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. The Lancet. July 14, 2020. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30677-2
41. Zimmer Z., McDaniel S.A. (eds). Global Aging in the Twenty-First Century: Challenges, Opportunities and Implications. L.; N. Y.: Routledge, 2013. 344 p.
Article
Received: 05.01.2023
Accepted: 25.06.2023
Citation Formats
Other cite formats:
ACM
[1]
Grinin, L.E., Grinin, A.L. and Korotayev, A.V. 2023. Aging of the Global Population as an Integral Problem of the Future. Sotsiologicheskiy Zhurnal = Sociological Journal. 29, 2 (Jun. 2023), 110-131. DOI:https://doi.org/10.19181/socjour.2023.29.2.6.
Section
THE INVITATION TO DISCUSSION
JATS XML
